Canadians gave the Conservatives a minority government yesterday — the second straight minority government for Canada. While you can get better analysis elsewhere, here are some of my thoughts.
Despite a poor Liberal campaign, and the various scandals, the Liberals still managed to get a third of the seats, and just under a third of the popular vote. Is this a sign of the strength of the Liberal party? Probably a sign that Canadians don’t feel comfortable giving the Conservatives a majority yet. Canadians wanted to punish the Liberals, but did not want to give the Conservatives too much power. If the Conservatives are to survive, Harper must use the next couple of years to show Canadians that the Conservatives are not as right-wing as they are perceived to be. Since they now have representation from every part of the country, they must show that they are a national party, and that they are not just the old Reform party.
Since we have a minority, the Conservatives will need the support of at least one other party to pass any bill. The Liberals and BQ each have enough seats to hold the government together on their own. The NDP is just short again (assuming all MPs show up to vote). However, that also depends on how the independent leans, as well as who becomes speaker of the house. This means that an independent might have a big influence on how the house runs (much like in last March’s budget vote). (This also depends on how the recounts go, too.)
With a minority, the Conservatives won’t be able to deliver on some parts of their platform. We won’t be seeing a 5% GST any time soon — none of the other parties want to cut the GST (ironic since the Conservatives were the ones who had introduced the GST, and the Liberals had promised to scrap it). My guess is that Harper might be able to cut the GST slightly, if he implements some income tax cuts. He’ll probably have a tough time next time if he doesn’t manage to do anything about the GST (though the Liberals managed to get reelected after breaking their original promise).
And it seems like finance is where the Conservatives are going to have the most trouble. All the other parties are more left-leaning. Harper is going to have to work hard and make a lot of compromises to gain consensus with the other parties, in order to prevent another election. None of the parties want to have another election soon, so everyone will be trying to work to hold the government together — at least for a while. But this doesn’t give Harper a blank cheque. If he governs as though he had a minority, he’ll lose support of the house.
Some things, though, will be much easier for the Conservatives. The Bloc and the NDP will both support a federal accountability act, which Harper said is the first thing that he will be proposing. And with NDP support, they will probably launch a study on electoral reforms. (I’ll talk more about electoral reforms in a future post.)
Not too unexpectedly, Alberta is completely Conservative. The results in my riding were the closest in Alberta (and the last to be decided). Despite Anne McLellan’s personal popularity, she was done in by her party. If not for the fact that she was a Liberal, she could have been reelected.
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